Survival is a relevant endpoint for many questions related to the effects of chemicals in the environment. Making sense of mortality, as a process over time, requires mechanism-based models, known as toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TKTD) models. All published TKTD models for survival can now be viewed as members of an over-arching framework: GUTS.
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2 Description of GUTS
3 Mathematical treatment
4 Case study: dieldrin in guppies
5 Case study: propiconazole in amphipods
6 Use cases
7 Ring test
8 Model evaluation
Ecotoxicologists need tools to identify those combinations of man-made chemicals and organisms most likely to cause problems. In other words: which of the millions of species are
at risk from pollution? And which of the tens of thousands of chemicals contribute most to the risk? We identified our poor knowledge on physiological modes of action (how a chemical affects the
energy allocation in an organism), and how they vary across species and toxicants, as a major knowledge gap. We also find that the key to predictive ecotoxicology is the systematic, rigorous
characterization of physiological modes of action because that will enable more powerful in vitro to in vivo toxicity extrapolation and
in silico ecotoxicology. In the near future, we expect a step change in our ability to study physiological modes of action by improved, and partially automated,
experimental methods. Once we have populated the matrix of species and toxicants with sufficient physiological mode of action data we can look for patterns, and from those patterns infer general
rules, theory and models. (open access, link to paper at ESPI)